Petrol Prices in Pakistan: An Analysis
The petrol prices have shown a predictable rise in the recent past, but the amount of rise is unpredictable according to some analysts. What I want to analyze here is the prices of petrol in the near future. With all sorts of political uncertainties and crumbling economy the prices of petrol in Pakistan is likely to increase by a greater percentage than the international market.
The petrol price internationally in February 2008 peaked at $103.05 per barrel while the price in July reached about $147.02 per barrel (at the time of writing this article). This shows an increase of 42.67%. In the same interval Pakistan’s petrol prices per liter have jumped up from Rs.53.70 to Rs.86.66 which is a rise of 61.38%. This just proves the above point, and with no end to political crises and rising international petrol prices in sight, the effect on local petrol prices can well be imagined. The following figure shows the petrol prices in the country after the February 18 elections. All statisticians can extend that line of rising gradient and predict the future prices easily.
According to FuturePundit the petrol prices in 2012 is predicted at $225 per barrel. Comparing this with the prices in February 2008, the increase is a whopping 118.34%. As I said earlier, the Pakistani economy cannot sustain this easily and the price hike in Pakistan can be estimated at 170.22% using the same proportion of increase as today. Assuming that the government continues to provide some subsidy as it does today (the minister has already said that no subsidies will be given on petrol next year!), the petrol prices in Pakistan in 2012 will be Rs.145.11 per liter. My guesses are a price higher than this calculation because of the war-like situation in tribal areas and the political situation which is still worsening (there’s more to it!). It will probably be around Rs.160-170 per liter.
Happy cycling in 2012! 
No man, the most important issue at hand is the restoration of the judiciary.
Yeh kya tum petrol ke peechhe bhaag rahe ho?
restoration of judiciary, or some judges?!
Who gives a sh*t, just restore something!
aye bhai petrol mehnga ho raha hai to fir zara sochye 1 middleclas bande ka? kia wo petrol istimaal kar paye ga?? Let the bloody judiciary go to hell!!!!!! i dunt care!! and these guys r corrupt. so wat wud change?? Nothing!!!!!!!!!!
Dude, I was being sarcastic.
Yeah i know!! Mr. Sarcastic
Solar-powered vehicles FTW!
yeah i was jus thinkin about it!!!
Man!!! i never knew the oil prices wud shoot up like this!!!
hmm…as far as i remeber before the last price increase i heared/read that gov of pakistan is giving subsidy of Rs. 50 per liter and they are planning to sub due it in comming months so i think they increase would be more anas….hard luck for pakistan
LOL at the cycling thing! The prices are now down, at around $123 per barrel… but it is difficult that petrol prices in pakistan will fall anytime before they go down to $80 odd per barrel..
Salam Fellows
Dont just think that increase in fuel prices means you wont be able to drive rather everything will get expensive, specially the basic needs of life i.e food, cloth, roof to live under and whatever you can think of because all is dependent on fuel on way or the other
That would simply mean - Middle class Pakistani ( Almost most of us ) wont be able to think anything else but how to survive and fight for the basic necessities of life -
Think Practically and at least be aware of what is gonna happen to Pakistan in future and how we need to work over , together all of us
and by the way restoration of judiciary is also an important issue but what if one will not have any thought other than to struggle for food, who will care about restoration of judiciary at that time and what difference will that make then.
i think petrol would increase but not so much as to anas.Because of our currency devaluation and debts of imf Govt. would not be able to give subsides in 2012.