Anas Imtiaz

Jiyalas vs Jail Walas

// March 14th, 2009 // 6 Comments » // Pakistan, Politics

The sudden resignation of Sherry Rehman, and the preceding one of Raza Rabbani is an open demonstration of the internal rift within the PPP. Sherry Rehman’s reasons of resignation include interferences from Rehman Malik and other higher ups close to President Zardari. Rabbani was unhappy at Naik’s appointment as chairman Senate. Naik is considered a close aide of the President while Rabbani close to late Benazir Bhutto. The stalwarts of PPP, the jiyalas, are loyal to BB’s manifestos. Whereas, people like Farooq Naik, Latif Khosa and Rehman Malik are Zardari’s trusted men. Rehman Malik was ALSO close to Benazir Bhutto during her last days and was involved in the carving out of NRO.

The current infight within the PPP is the battle between the Bhutto loyalists, the jiyalas and Zardari loyalists, the jail walas. Zardari has bestowed his mercy upon all those who helped him get through his days in prison. At this time the jail wala is much more powerful on paper.

The resistance of the lawyers is a threat to the government coupled with the support from the main opposition parties. However, I believe the greater threat to this Mr. Zardari (the jail wala) is a revolt from the jiyalas. It will be interesting to note how the PPP stalwarts react in the coming days. If Rehman and Rabbani’s resignations are to be interpreted as hints, then surely the end of this chapter will not be a surprise.

The Next 48 Hours

// March 14th, 2009 // 3 Comments » // Pakistan, Politics

This weekend of 14/15 March 2009 can be a turning point in the history of Pakistan. There have been a myriad rumours today where some were absolutely absurd.  There are a number of possible ways out of this chaos. I will try to have a look at some of them here. I must say at this point that unfortunately Pakistan is not the only thing that these politicians are thinking about. There is a lot at stake, mostly the political careers and power shares.

The COAS Kiyani met the President and Prime Minister in an attempt to diffuse the tension and then the Americans and British chipped in as well. What exactly was the message? To understand that we must try to figure out what exactly is the problem and who are the stakeholders?

First, and foremost, are the lawyers. They want the restoration of Chief Justice. And why not? They have struggled the most. They have been bolstered with the support of political parties and will continue to ask for their chief. So one problem is the restoration of CJP.

Next is PPP, who have a herd of corrupt personnel heading the party and the team also doing a number of frauds (similar to the famous Shaukat Aziz steel mills case). They need people who will ensure the protection of all these corrupt acts and hence comes the need for their own judiciary. They also want absolute power which is not shared by any major political force. They had most of it, and want it in Punjab too. They cannot repeal the 17th amendment because the head of their party is enjoying the superior powers.

And the third stakeholder is PML-N whose political future depends completely on the judiciary issue. They have committed so much that they cannot back out. They may settle for all other issues but not for judiciary. They would love to see CJP coming back and taking some credit for it. They would also love the government to go out soon. (Who doesnt?)

So the main issue is the restoration of Chief Justice around which resolves all other issues. Everything is interlinked in a complex fashion.

So did the Americans/British tell them to resolve the issue? How? By restoring Iftikhar Chaudhry? I doubt that because he is disliked by the West. A sustainable solution from these corridors is unlikely. What about the COAS? What message could he pass? If we still believe in Kiyani’s old words that he will not interfere in politics, the only message can be to get the chief back. Again, that is unlikely. The likely message was for the PM to sort out the mess or get ready to go. This would be a stern message, but then why doesn’t Zardari relent?

Islamabad Buzzing With Rumours

// March 13th, 2009 // 3 Comments » // Pakistan, Politics

There are all sorts of rumours going around with the most concrete being the President acceding to some of the demands. Chances of reinstatement of Iftikhar Chaudhry are at all time high and having two separate judicial institutions is equally likely. We may have something like two Chief Justices in parallel (hahaha!!). The President has also, reportedly, agreed for the end of Governor rule in Punjab. This was likely and I think the imposition of the rule was also done with the intention of it being lifted at this time. Army Chief is heavily involved in these discussions but the only problem that lies is that no one person is ready to trust Zardari’s words! What if Zardari backtracks once again?? Will the lawyers agree to a new solution presented by the government? Is this an attempt to separate PML-N and the lawyers?

Also, there are rumours of the exit of Salman Taseer (and Rehman Malik). Though, I believe it is curtains for Salman Taseer but despite my wishes for the end of Rehman Malik, I don’t see it likely to happen. The President will not want to lose anything politically either. It is a complex situation which shall become clear within few hours. Till that lets munch on the rumours and keep our fingers crossed.

You’re Not Innocent Mr. Sharif!

// March 1st, 2009 // 8 Comments » // Pakistan, Politics

On April 15, 1999, an Ehtesab Bench of Lahore High Court convicted Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari and sentenced them to undergo five years’ imprisonment each, and to pay a fine of $8.6 million. The court also ordered their disqualification as members of the parliament, as well as confiscation of their property. The Ehtesab Bench, comprising Justice Malik Qayyum and Justice Najmul Hasan Kazmi, held that the pre-shipment contract to the Swiss company, SGS, was awarded by the former Prime Minister “alone” at the behest of and in abatement with Zardari.

Boy oh boy! Now why the heck are you whining when the same is being done to you? Where was the so-called “independent judiciary” ten years ago? I’m not supporting the current decision. I’m just saying that those who believe that Nawaz is sincere this time should have a rethink. They all are same! Yuck!

Will Muslim Leagues Unite? Will We See A New PM?

// March 1st, 2009 // No Comments » // Pakistan, Politics

The imposition of governor rule in Punjab has prompted the factions of Muslim League to realise that this is an attempt of PPP to encroach in their territory. In fact, the PPP has already advanced in the PML zone and this act may just backfire with the unification of PML-N and PML-Q. Can this really happen? There are two important questions that need to be answered.

1. Will the Chaudhrys trust Zardari, given his recent history to break promises and his long-term animosity with them?

2. Will the Chaudhrys and Sharifs patchup?

Any one of these two WILL happen, and that will decide the future direction.

Given the fact that PML-Q has been humiliated in the elections for standing by Pervez Musharraf, there wwill be reluctance among their ranks for supporting PPP, which is widely believed to be following what is touted as Musharraf’s agenda. There have been rumours that Chaudhry Shujaat is asking for the position of Chairman Senate for himself, and the seat of CM Punjab for Moonis Elahi. Again, this may not be popular in their own party primarily because the members were earlier not happy with the leadership of Chaudhrys. And any such deal will directly affect the Chaudhry family rather than providing any benefit to the PML-Q, the party. Then comes the issue of trust. Why will PML-Q believe that PPP will not try to interfere in the politics of Punjab even if CM belongs to PML-Q. It is not a secret that Punjab is the key to rule the center and PPP will try to tighten its grip in Punjab. If a deal is struck between PPP and PML-Q agitation in Punjab will not cease.

The second, and more plausible, option is the (re)unification of PML. Or atleast, support in the assemblies. This can even lead to the overthrow of PPP’s government in center. Since Shahbaz Sharif is now disqualified to be the CM, and Nawaz disqualified to be the PM, it is clear that the future PM from PML-N will be Shahbaz Sharif (an amendment in the Constitution is unlikely in my view). Can PML (N and Q) agree on power sharing formula such that one of them gets the center while the other enjoys Punjab? Certainly possible with the increase in meetings between the members of both the parties…BUT..what about Sindh? Any such government changes will lead to agitation in Sindh! Will MQM join hands with them? They have enjoyed good relations with PML-Q but not with PML-N. Obviously they can join anyone under the banner of national interest.

The second option does look good on paper but the bigger problem is that a change in the leader of House (PM) can easily be resisted by the all-powerful President!

The situation is very complex and conflicting. PPP and PML(N and Q) have a tight hold over one province atleast. In case of any elections, I don’t see them losing grip in their stronghold. In fact, the grip will be tightened. This, sadly, means that whoever forms a government in center will have atleast one large province out of control. Punjab is important from strategic point of view in running the government, while Sindh (read Karachi) is important from economic point of view. The only way out is a harmony, trust and reconciliation. Given the history, this is next to impossible.

Pakistan Ka Khuda Hafiz

Sharif, A Destroyer of National Institutions – Hamid Gul

// March 1st, 2009 // 1 Comment » // Pakistan, Politics

It is interesting to note how people tend to forget their affiliations with time. Almost ten years ago, Lt. Gen (r) Hamid Gul vehemently supported the military coup and said that the people of Pakistan have rejected both Bhutto and Sharif. He opposed the Sharif government and described his sacking of the then Chief of Army Staff as unconstitutional. Turns out, Sharif is the man that he now loves.

Obviously many of my dear readers will not believe what I’m saying, therefore I’m providing an audio link to BBC and the news article as well. Honestly, its not a surprise at all to me. How can we believe in such people, or even listen to them given what they have done in their past? And if they claim to have repented, then so did Zardari and Sharif, and their promises!

Hamid Gul, speaking to coup, on Oct 1999 coup: http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/470000/audio/_473950_gul.ram

News Article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/473297.stm

So What If Sharif Brothers Are Disqualified?

// February 26th, 2009 // 9 Comments » // Pakistan, Politics

I fail to understand why a ‘popular’ person cannot be disqualified in Pakistan. Why can’t a two-time Chief Minister and a two-time Prime Minister, elected with two-third majority, be disqualified? What is the fuss about the recent decision of the Supreme Court? So, what if Nawaz Sharif has been disqualified? People should know that he was already ineligible and the court has just witheld the previous verdict. Any why not? A sitting PM, who conspired against the army chief and tries to sack him in-air, doesn’t even deserve to taste power again.

A goon from this very party stated on TV that a politician cannot be disqualified by court. He can only be rejected by the awam. Yeah, and that will never happen in feudal politics! How conveniently he managed to score a point! If the courts cannot disqualify a politician, cannot try an armyman so what the heck is it for?!

Obviously, the current decision is politically motivated but I feel this should have happened long ago. Indeed, it did. There is no place for such a man in the politics of Pakistan.

We should all thank the Almighty that the crooked court has made a landmark decision to get rid of the second most corrupt man in Pakistan (after Zardari). The only thing to lament about here is that the two stooges (Sharifs) will now get lots of media attention and will continue to speak in the emotional, cry-baby style.

I, however, believe that Shahbaz Sharif may still make a comeback in the power politics. As for the elder Sharif, the doors are closed. He will remain as the head of his party, but hold no official post.

Now, coming to the political side of it, I believe this is a very risky move by the man who inherited the country from his wife’s will. Contrary to what others think, I’ve a feeling that this move has worked nicely so far. I saw Saad Rafique saying that the Long March of lawyers will now be transformed in to Pakistan Bachao Movement. This effectively will bring PML-N in to the limelight and the lawyers will take the backseat. There may be a ‘race condition’ as to who leads the movement and what is the objective of it putting everyone in confusion. This decision is also an attempt to restrict the support from Pubjab for the Long March.

PML-N have also called for mid-term elections, again which is something not required. Any sort of election at this point in time will result in a similar result as before. PML-N will not win anything in Sindh and Baluchistan, while PPP may lose ground in Punjab.

In conclusion, my view is that Shahbaz Sharif has become a victim of political vandetta while Nawaz Sharif got what he deserved.

Mustafa Kamal #2? Karachi #57

// November 13th, 2008 // 13 Comments » // Politics

It was well publicized that Mustafa Kamal has been ranked as the 2nd best mayor in the world. The news made the frontpage in almost every paper. This came as no surprise for the residents of Karachi who have actually witnessed the change. But there are people who’re just unable to digest this news.

A well respected Jamaat-e-Islami member said yesterday that this is a propaganda by MQM!! He added that Mustafa Kamal is actually ranked as #57. I checked on the Foreign Policy website and the link is:

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4509&page=3

It says clearly who the top three mayors (edit: no rankings!) are. The numbers in the brackets are the ranking of the city.

Similarly, PTI (yeah, it stands for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) boasts on its website that this ranking is false and they called FP magazine to confirm that! Members of PTI (I hardly know of anyone other than Imran Khan) have a forum where they say that Mustafa Kamal is best “when it comes to build collapsable flyovers.” Now, collapsable flyovers is a fantastic idea though, but the author is referring to the Shershah flyover that collapsed. It must be noted that Shershah flyover wasn’t a project of CDGK and Mustafa Kamal had no involvement in it. It was a project of NHA (National Highway Authority), which is a federal organization.

To hell with PTI, congratulations to Mustafa Kamal (edit) for being mentioned.

Welcome Back To 90’s

// August 25th, 2008 // 3 Comments » // Politics

It didn’t take long for Nawaz Sharif to declare an open war against PPP. This was the script of the show with the departure of Pervez Musharraf, the reason PML-N stayed in the coalition for so long. Now that Pervez Musharraf is out, they had to oppose PPP to continue their politics, mostly that of confrontation.

The ground is all set for the battle in Punjab, which is the most important province to conquer if one is to sustain a government in center. The appointment of Salman Taseer was a key indication of PPP’s foresight.

Nawaz was quiet all along and kept hanging on just to jam all ways of PPP’s alliance with Pervez Musharraf. Now that his agenda is fulfilled, it didn’t take him long to part ways with his bitter enemy.

Many bloggers predicted this the day Musharraf resigned. Ammar talked about the start of a cat-fight, which is precisely what is happening between the two parties.

The stage is set for the next showdown in Punjab. PML-Q will play the role of kingmaker, as their alliance with any of the two parties will decide the fate of the government.

Its neither the issue of judiciary nor the choice of president that have caused this coalition to break but the imprudence and incompetence of this lot of politicians has resulted in the failure of this coalition. They were never sincere with the issues of the people, all they wanted was to get rid of Musharraf and get a share of power to fill their pockets. The provincial assemblies are busy criticising Musharraf and endorsing Zardari, completely ignoring the issues of the people of Pakistan.

This has always been the real face of these political parties and those who believed in a certain change of betterment after 18th Feb were living in a fool’s paradise.

The parties are busy playing the dirty game of politics with the camouflage of democracy. This should remind us the last few words of our former President:

Pakistan Ka Khuda Hafiz

Can’t Help Admiring Zardari

// August 24th, 2008 // 8 Comments » // Politics

No matter how much I hate him, I have to admire the man for his moves, courage and foresight.

First of all, despite the whole world labelling him as a notorious politician, corrupt, murderer and everything else, he never admitted any of those crimes. He went on to stay in prison for eleven years even when he had offers of exile. He kept his cool, stuck in, knowing there was light (and a lot of it) at the end of the tunnel.

He started his new era of politics on the back of Benazir’s death. On the front he continued to boast Nawaz Sharif as his big brother knowing very well that the coalition is temporary and hence preparing the ground for PML-N’s disgrace at the back-end.

A close analysis of the presidential issue shows that at first it was PML-N  who wanted Musharraf out of the scene, but the way our dear President bowed out gave most of the credit to PPP rather than PML-N.

While the judiciary issue is the backbone of PML-N’s current success Zardari made numerous promises and then backed out leaving the fool Sharif standing in no man’s land. This has dented PPP’s reputation undoubtedly, but PML-N’s popularity is also hurt by this tactic of Zardari.

This is politics at its best. To dent PML-N further, Zardari created an environment where PML-N is left with no option but to quit themselves, and in case the system is wrapped it, the blame will go squarely on PML-N for destabilising a democratic government.

Zardari, as president, can also reinstate Iftikhar Chaudhry as th CJP because the president has some protections of not facing all those cases of corruption. So President Zardari will have no fear of NRO being revoked by the judiciary. And then he can also take the credit of restoring the judges himself.

He has forced PML-N in a closed chamber having Salman Taseer in Punjab and now having talks with PML-Q for support.

All this is leading to the politics of 90’s, which we all detest. But we have to admire Zardari for excellent political gambits. Despite all such political excellence, I, and most of us, will continue to hate Zardari!