Jiyalas vs Jail Walas

The sudden resignation of Sherry Rehman, and the preceding one of Raza Rabbani is an open demonstration of the internal rift within the PPP. Sherry Rehman’s reasons of resignation include interferences from Rehman Malik and other higher ups close to President Zardari. Rabbani was unhappy at Naik’s appointment as chairman Senate. Naik is considered a close aide of the President while Rabbani close to late Benazir Bhutto. The stalwarts of PPP, the jiyalas, are loyal to BB’s manifestos. Whereas, people like Farooq Naik, Latif Khosa and Rehman Malik are Zardari’s trusted men. Rehman Malik was ALSO close to Benazir Bhutto during her last days and was involved in the carving out of NRO.

The current infight within the PPP is the battle between the Bhutto loyalists, the jiyalas and Zardari loyalists, the jail walas. Zardari has bestowed his mercy upon all those who helped him get through his days in prison. At this time the jail wala is much more powerful on paper.

The resistance of the lawyers is a threat to the government coupled with the support from the main opposition parties. However, I believe the greater threat to this Mr. Zardari (the jail wala) is a revolt from the jiyalas. It will be interesting to note how the PPP stalwarts react in the coming days. If Rehman and Rabbani’s resignations are to be interpreted as hints, then surely the end of this chapter will not be a surprise.

The Next 48 Hours

This weekend of 14/15 March 2009 can be a turning point in the history of Pakistan. There have been a myriad rumours today where some were absolutely absurd.  There are a number of possible ways out of this chaos. I will try to have a look at some of them here. I must say at this point that unfortunately Pakistan is not the only thing that these politicians are thinking about. There is a lot at stake, mostly the political careers and power shares.

The COAS Kiyani met the President and Prime Minister in an attempt to diffuse the tension and then the Americans and British chipped in as well. What exactly was the message? To understand that we must try to figure out what exactly is the problem and who are the stakeholders?

First, and foremost, are the lawyers. They want the restoration of Chief Justice. And why not? They have struggled the most. They have been bolstered with the support of political parties and will continue to ask for their chief. So one problem is the restoration of CJP.

Next is PPP, who have a herd of corrupt personnel heading the party and the team also doing a number of frauds (similar to the famous Shaukat Aziz steel mills case). They need people who will ensure the protection of all these corrupt acts and hence comes the need for their own judiciary. They also want absolute power which is not shared by any major political force. They had most of it, and want it in Punjab too. They cannot repeal the 17th amendment because the head of their party is enjoying the superior powers.

And the third stakeholder is PML-N whose political future depends completely on the judiciary issue. They have committed so much that they cannot back out. They may settle for all other issues but not for judiciary. They would love to see CJP coming back and taking some credit for it. They would also love the government to go out soon. (Who doesnt?)

So the main issue is the restoration of Chief Justice around which resolves all other issues. Everything is interlinked in a complex fashion.

So did the Americans/British tell them to resolve the issue? How? By restoring Iftikhar Chaudhry? I doubt that because he is disliked by the West. A sustainable solution from these corridors is unlikely. What about the COAS? What message could he pass? If we still believe in Kiyani’s old words that he will not interfere in politics, the only message can be to get the chief back. Again, that is unlikely. The likely message was for the PM to sort out the mess or get ready to go. This would be a stern message, but then why doesn’t Zardari relent?

Islamabad Buzzing With Rumours

There are all sorts of rumours going around with the most concrete being the President acceding to some of the demands. Chances of reinstatement of Iftikhar Chaudhry are at all time high and having two separate judicial institutions is equally likely. We may have something like two Chief Justices in parallel (hahaha!!). The President has also, reportedly, agreed for the end of Governor rule in Punjab. This was likely and I think the imposition of the rule was also done with the intention of it being lifted at this time. Army Chief is heavily involved in these discussions but the only problem that lies is that no one person is ready to trust Zardari’s words! What if Zardari backtracks once again?? Will the lawyers agree to a new solution presented by the government? Is this an attempt to separate PML-N and the lawyers?

Also, there are rumours of the exit of Salman Taseer (and Rehman Malik). Though, I believe it is curtains for Salman Taseer but despite my wishes for the end of Rehman Malik, I don’t see it likely to happen. The President will not want to lose anything politically either. It is a complex situation which shall become clear within few hours. Till that lets munch on the rumours and keep our fingers crossed.

You're Not Innocent Mr. Sharif!

On April 15, 1999, an Ehtesab Bench of Lahore High Court convicted Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari and sentenced them to undergo five years’ imprisonment each, and to pay a fine of $8.6 million. The court also ordered their disqualification as members of the parliament, as well as confiscation of their property. The Ehtesab Bench, comprising Justice Malik Qayyum and Justice Najmul Hasan Kazmi, held that the pre-shipment contract to the Swiss company, SGS, was awarded by the former Prime Minister “alone” at the behest of and in abatement with Zardari.

Boy oh boy! Now why the heck are you whining when the same is being done to you? Where was the so-called “independent judiciary” ten years ago? I’m not supporting the current decision. I’m just saying that those who believe that Nawaz is sincere this time should have a rethink. They all are same! Yuck!

Will Muslim Leagues Unite? Will We See A New PM?

The imposition of governor rule in Punjab has prompted the factions of Muslim League to realise that this is an attempt of PPP to encroach in their territory. In fact, the PPP has already advanced in the PML zone and this act may just backfire with the unification of PML-N and PML-Q. Can this really happen? There are two important questions that need to be answered.

1. Will the Chaudhrys trust Zardari, given his recent history to break promises and his long-term animosity with them?

2. Will the Chaudhrys and Sharifs patchup?

Any one of these two WILL happen, and that will decide the future direction.

Given the fact that PML-Q has been humiliated in the elections for standing by Pervez Musharraf, there wwill be reluctance among their ranks for supporting PPP, which is widely believed to be following what is touted as Musharraf’s agenda. There have been rumours that Chaudhry Shujaat is asking for the position of Chairman Senate for himself, and the seat of CM Punjab for Moonis Elahi. Again, this may not be popular in their own party primarily because the members were earlier not happy with the leadership of Chaudhrys. And any such deal will directly affect the Chaudhry family rather than providing any benefit to the PML-Q, the party. Then comes the issue of trust. Why will PML-Q believe that PPP will not try to interfere in the politics of Punjab even if CM belongs to PML-Q. It is not a secret that Punjab is the key to rule the center and PPP will try to tighten its grip in Punjab. If a deal is struck between PPP and PML-Q agitation in Punjab will not cease.

The second, and more plausible, option is the (re)unification of PML. Or atleast, support in the assemblies. This can even lead to the overthrow of PPP’s government in center. Since Shahbaz Sharif is now disqualified to be the CM, and Nawaz disqualified to be the PM, it is clear that the future PM from PML-N will be Shahbaz Sharif (an amendment in the Constitution is unlikely in my view). Can PML (N and Q) agree on power sharing formula such that one of them gets the center while the other enjoys Punjab? Certainly possible with the increase in meetings between the members of both the parties…BUT..what about Sindh? Any such government changes will lead to agitation in Sindh! Will MQM join hands with them? They have enjoyed good relations with PML-Q but not with PML-N. Obviously they can join anyone under the banner of national interest.

The second option does look good on paper but the bigger problem is that a change in the leader of House (PM) can easily be resisted by the all-powerful President!

The situation is very complex and conflicting. PPP and PML(N and Q) have a tight hold over one province atleast. In case of any elections, I don’t see them losing grip in their stronghold. In fact, the grip will be tightened. This, sadly, means that whoever forms a government in center will have atleast one large province out of control. Punjab is important from strategic point of view in running the government, while Sindh (read Karachi) is important from economic point of view. The only way out is a harmony, trust and reconciliation. Given the history, this is next to impossible.

Pakistan Ka Khuda Hafiz

Sharif, A Destroyer of National Institutions – Hamid Gul

It is interesting to note how people tend to forget their affiliations with time. Almost ten years ago, Lt. Gen (r) Hamid Gul vehemently supported the military coup and said that the people of Pakistan have rejected both Bhutto and Sharif. He opposed the Sharif government and described his sacking of the then Chief of Army Staff as unconstitutional. Turns out, Sharif is the man that he now loves.

Obviously many of my dear readers will not believe what I’m saying, therefore I’m providing an audio link to BBC and the news article as well. Honestly, its not a surprise at all to me. How can we believe in such people, or even listen to them given what they have done in their past? And if they claim to have repented, then so did Zardari and Sharif, and their promises!

Hamid Gul, speaking to coup, on Oct 1999 coup: http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/470000/audio/_473950_gul.ram

News Article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/473297.stm