Anas Imtiaz

The Way Forward For Pakistan?

// January 6th, 2009 // 15 Comments » // Pakistan

Despite my proclivity towards Gen. (R) Musharraf and his government, my extreme abhorrence for President Zardari and equally strong feelings of hatred fpr Nawaz Sharif, I would not like to see yet another military coup in the country now. My regular readers may label this a change in my thinking, but it is not. The reasons will be explicated as I present a background for this particular post.

Pakistan is currently surrounded by external threats. The problem of security is compunded with the internal threats. Electricity was always a problem in Karachi, now the whole country faces it. Petrol is mysteriously missing from various large cities. Stock Exchange is being restored to the position of October 99. Higher education sector has taken a bad blow. Political rivalries of the 90’s are back with full throttle. One man is running the show in Pakistan, despite it being a democracy. The list is just endless.

There are calls from certain quarters demanding the topple of the present setup. It is, indeed, extremely unlikely to continue the full tenure (which I guess the ruling elite realises and hence doing all personal favours in haste). Now let us suppose for a moment that the current chaotic conditions continue, pressure grows and Pakistan Army steps again to take control and vow to bring back the country on track. It will be welcomed by the people (again) and they will regret it later, as usual. An army interference at this stage is not a solution because then the politicians will have yet another chance of saying rightly that they weren’t given a chance. For example, if Raja Pervez Ashraf claims to end load-shedding by next year (my understanding being an end to electricity will mean no load-shedding), and the government is being toppled then he can say that he wasn’t allowed to finish his mission. So, the army should exercise patience and let the politicians stay in power for five years. (more…)

Zardari’s Lame Speech

// September 20th, 2008 // 1 Comment » // Pakistan

President Zardari’s address was far from impressive. I don’t really feel like writing anything about politics these days, but Zardari deserves some bashing. I’ll pen my first impressions about his speech here.

1) Why was the speech in English? Who was he trying to address and please?

2) He said “Never in the history of this country has a President standing here given his powers back”, the question is, Will you, Mr. President??

3) His way of speaking sucks big time, especially the way he tries to enforce some words at the end of his sentences.

4) I’d have liked him to wear a sherwani, but I’ll let this one pass.

5) There was no direct mention of US attacks on our borders.

6) There was a very liberal use of the words “Shaheed Mohtarma”

Conclusion: The speech was inconclusive.

Will Zardari Back Out Of The Presidential Bid?

// August 30th, 2008 // No Comments » // Pakistan

Are there more surprises in the bag of the co-chairman of PPP? Rumors are rife about the possibility of Zardari stepping down as the presidential candidate of PPP at the last possible moment. The covering candidate is Faryal Talpur, whose appointment to the office of President was almost sure at one time. Will Zardari back out or not? Let’s have a look at the pros and cons for him.

I’ll first discuss the advantages for Zardari if he decides to go ahead with his nomination.

This is perhaps the first and the last chance for Zardari to play such high level power politics in Pakistan. Getting elected to the powerful office of President will legitimise his current role of pulling the strings in the country. He is, undoubtedly, the most powerful man in the country right now and hence being the president will legalise his role in policy-making.

Getting elected to the office of President, Zardari will have no fear of the judges (if they’re restored) or the cancellation of NRO because the constitution of Pakistan does provide protection to the president in office such that none of his previous cases can be reopened as long as he is in office while any current charges cannot be taken up in the courts, the only forum being the Parliament where his party enjoys a viable majority.

If Zardari decides to go ahead, he will have to declare all his assets. These may not be difficult to hide for him, but I suppose the list is long enough to hide. So this can be a troubling aspect. If a lot of it is declared then we all know what that can lead to.

In case he backs out, will that decision be fruitful for him?

He will still have the fear of NRO and hence cannot restore the judges, which apparently he isn’t interested in doing in any case.

Backing out in favor of someone else might have been popular decision, but giving the chance to his own sister will raise eyebrows.

The people of Pakistan may breathe a sigh of relief if Zardari backs out, so the decision may appear to be one respecting public sentiments.

Zardari may be able to gather more votes from other parties if he himself is not the one standing for the chair.

At the moment, nothing can be said with certainty. There is a lot at stake for Zardari. Both decisions can have far reaching effects. A deep analysis of the situation isn’t conclusive enough to predict the events of the next two days.

So, I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed hoping for some common sense to prevail.

Welcome Back To 90’s

// August 25th, 2008 // 3 Comments » // Politics

It didn’t take long for Nawaz Sharif to declare an open war against PPP. This was the script of the show with the departure of Pervez Musharraf, the reason PML-N stayed in the coalition for so long. Now that Pervez Musharraf is out, they had to oppose PPP to continue their politics, mostly that of confrontation.

The ground is all set for the battle in Punjab, which is the most important province to conquer if one is to sustain a government in center. The appointment of Salman Taseer was a key indication of PPP’s foresight.

Nawaz was quiet all along and kept hanging on just to jam all ways of PPP’s alliance with Pervez Musharraf. Now that his agenda is fulfilled, it didn’t take him long to part ways with his bitter enemy.

Many bloggers predicted this the day Musharraf resigned. Ammar talked about the start of a cat-fight, which is precisely what is happening between the two parties.

The stage is set for the next showdown in Punjab. PML-Q will play the role of kingmaker, as their alliance with any of the two parties will decide the fate of the government.

Its neither the issue of judiciary nor the choice of president that have caused this coalition to break but the imprudence and incompetence of this lot of politicians has resulted in the failure of this coalition. They were never sincere with the issues of the people, all they wanted was to get rid of Musharraf and get a share of power to fill their pockets. The provincial assemblies are busy criticising Musharraf and endorsing Zardari, completely ignoring the issues of the people of Pakistan.

This has always been the real face of these political parties and those who believed in a certain change of betterment after 18th Feb were living in a fool’s paradise.

The parties are busy playing the dirty game of politics with the camouflage of democracy. This should remind us the last few words of our former President:

Pakistan Ka Khuda Hafiz

Can’t Help Admiring Zardari

// August 24th, 2008 // 8 Comments » // Politics

No matter how much I hate him, I have to admire the man for his moves, courage and foresight.

First of all, despite the whole world labelling him as a notorious politician, corrupt, murderer and everything else, he never admitted any of those crimes. He went on to stay in prison for eleven years even when he had offers of exile. He kept his cool, stuck in, knowing there was light (and a lot of it) at the end of the tunnel.

He started his new era of politics on the back of Benazir’s death. On the front he continued to boast Nawaz Sharif as his big brother knowing very well that the coalition is temporary and hence preparing the ground for PML-N’s disgrace at the back-end.

A close analysis of the presidential issue shows that at first it was PML-N  who wanted Musharraf out of the scene, but the way our dear President bowed out gave most of the credit to PPP rather than PML-N.

While the judiciary issue is the backbone of PML-N’s current success Zardari made numerous promises and then backed out leaving the fool Sharif standing in no man’s land. This has dented PPP’s reputation undoubtedly, but PML-N’s popularity is also hurt by this tactic of Zardari.

This is politics at its best. To dent PML-N further, Zardari created an environment where PML-N is left with no option but to quit themselves, and in case the system is wrapped it, the blame will go squarely on PML-N for destabilising a democratic government.

Zardari, as president, can also reinstate Iftikhar Chaudhry as th CJP because the president has some protections of not facing all those cases of corruption. So President Zardari will have no fear of NRO being revoked by the judiciary. And then he can also take the credit of restoring the judges himself.

He has forced PML-N in a closed chamber having Salman Taseer in Punjab and now having talks with PML-Q for support.

All this is leading to the politics of 90’s, which we all detest. But we have to admire Zardari for excellent political gambits. Despite all such political excellence, I, and most of us, will continue to hate Zardari!

Welcome to Demon-cracy!

// August 19th, 2008 // 10 Comments » // Pakistan

The man responsible for unifying the two diametrical political parties in Pakistan has resigned. Rejoice as you may and call it the victory of democracy if you deem fit.

Alas, it had to end one day, a tearful departure. Dramatic, yet expected. No blame games. No leg pulling. None of that old crap. No reference to NRO, not even a hint of regret. This was the end of one of the most developing era of Pakistan, economically, industrially and socially. Pervez Musharraf, bowed out, exuding confidence, with certainty that no charge sheet can be proven against him. That’s how one speaks to the nation, live (even if your notes get lost ).

So long for dictatorship.

The power is now completely transfered to the elected representatives. Welcome to so-called democracy.

The economy will show an upward trend immediately. The investors will return soon. No more flight of capital. The law and order situation will improve. The army will stop its operation in tribal areas. Baluchistan will no more be a deprived province. Corruption will cease. Media will never be victimised. The army will never interfere in the politics. The influence of US on our foreign policy will be history. All policies will be formulated in the Parliament by the elected members. The poverty rate will begin to decline. Power plants will be setup and the shortage will be overcome by the end of 2009. Will the constitution be revived to a position of 12 Oct 1999, removing the NRO from it and the increase of women’s and minorities’ seats?

If ANY of the above does happen, I’m ready to run around naked!

I can’t even imagine to believe that Zardari and Nawaz, the demagogues, will ever do anything for the benefit of the nation.

Now since Musharraf has resigned, the charge sheet that was being prepared against him must be put forth and the former president must be hauled to the courts. All charges including the Kargil issue must be looked at if there is really some evidence the nation deserves to see it. Otherwise, the whole drama of the past few months will be nothing more than a political act. If Musharraf’s heroic claims are incorporeal, as the political parties have said, then the man must be given a fair trial.

The coalition of devils and buffoons have a further job at hand of chosing the next president who will retain the power of 58(2)b unless the constitution is amended. Will the PPP trust someone other than their own party to have that power, given the reputation that they don’t even trust their own stalwarts like Amin Faheem? I dobut that. Bilawal Zardari (no Bhutto!) and Asif Zardari have already said that the president will be from PPP. I bet that will be the next source of stories for the news channel soaps.

Amidst the imminent crisis, the role of army will be monitored with a magnifying glass. How long will the army resist power? The readings of history does provide an insight.

Pervez Musharraf MUST Be Tried

// August 18th, 2008 // 12 Comments » // Pakistan

Now that the man being alleged for all the wrongdoings in the world has finally yielded in, it is imperative upon the supreme institutions of the country to demand his accountability. The government, in no way, must provide indemnity to the man they were about to impeach on charges of gross misconduct. It is heartening to see that the former president is staying in Pakistan (for now) unlike some of the others who opted to live in royal luxury of oil-rich lands.

Should Musharraf be tried? Yes! Doodh ka doodh aur pani ka pani hona chahiye. Let all the people know what the charges against him were, and if at all they were true or not. Musharraf has said that “no charge-sheet can stand against me.” So let this be decided in a court of law. The man allegedly responsible for the killing of a myriad people shouldn’t be let off the hook, if at all he is responsible!

All his policies, that are allegedly wrong, including the operation in tribal areas must be immediately checked. A politician (who has had a hair transplant) said on a number of occasions that he will release Dr. A.Q.Khan and make him the president. But after winning, he is almost tight-lipped about the issue. In fact, Pervez Musharraf was also being held responsible for the detainment and disgrace of AQ Khan (even by the media). Since he has deserted the Presidency now why is the scientist still in house arrest? Let the truth come out there as well.

The achievements of his past nine year tenure that Musharraf proudly mentioned should be looked at and the nation be told whether that is true or false.

All the educational policies, the phD programs, higher education claims must be assessed and nation be told whether or not this was  revolutionary (which I believe it was).

If he really was a villain as being portrayed by some paid media, then the struggle shouldn’t end here abruptly.

Those who claim to have fought so hard and long for the rule of law and independence of judiciary shouldn’t look to avoid a trial for Musharraf. It’s time for a fair trial, otherwise the intention of the coalition will always reek personal goals, preferences and agendas.

Will Musharraf be tried? I leave it for an open debate.

Musharraf’s Options

// August 13th, 2008 // 9 Comments » // Politics

The Presidential camp is busy preparing strategies to counter the Zardari-Nawaz onslaught on Pervez Musharraf. I’m sure the legal brains like Shareef Pirzada, Abdulhafeez Pirzada, Malik Qayyum and maybe some more are working on how to kill the impeachment motion with the help of the Constitution itself while other aides, and Musharraf himself, will be closely looking at the pros and cons of different legal and political strategies. Here are some of the options that I could come up with, I’m sure they’ve many more on their list of possibilities.

1) Resign and accept defeat. There can be no such thing as resignation in the “wide interest of the nation.”

2) Use the court the disqualify Shahbaz Sharif as CM.

3) Get hold of about 10 PPP members in Sindh and turn the tide against the provincial government.

4) Rescind the NRO.

5) Use the powers of 58-2(b).

6) Fight the impeachment motion taking advantage of the fact that most of the charges that have appeared so far are not sufficient to impeach him. This may also include using the Supreme Court to his advantage and the fact that Oct. 12 and Nov. 3 actions were done by the COAS and not the President (interesting!!). Also the fact that most of the allegations in the charge sheet so far relate to the previous presidential tenure. It may be interesting to find out whether those stand valid or not (legal position??).

7) Buy votes and win the impeachment motion.

Is It POSSIBLE to Impeach Musharraf, Legally??

// August 7th, 2008 // 7 Comments » // Pakistan

The Constitution of Pakistan allows the elected members of the Parliament and Senate to impeach the President, but on what grounds?

Article 47(1) states:

Notwithstanding anything contained in the Constitution, the President may, in accordance with the provisions of this Article, be removed from office on the ground of physical or mental incapacity or impeached on a charge of violating the Constitution or gross misconduct.

This is the only article declaring clearly the grounds on which the President can be removed from the office. The four factors given here are physical incapacity, mental incapacity, violation of Constitution and gross misconduct. How does this apply to Pervez Musharraf? Let’s analyse the four factors one by one.

PHYSICAL INCAPACITY
Pervez Musharraf is completely fit physically so this factor is discounted immediately.

MENTAL INCAPACITY
This doesn’t apply as well because apparently the President’s brain is working overtime these days.

VIOLATION OF CONSTITUTION
This is what most people consider to be THE most important factor that can be taken as a case against Musharraf. The extra-constitutional actions of Oct. 12 and Nov. 3 can be easily mentioned here and the case is straightforward. Is it so? Not exactly. The emergency and the coup of Oct. 12 was ratified by the Supreme Court of Pakistan (including Iftikhar Chaudhry, for the record). It is now a decision that features prominently in all the law books which the judges and lawyers refer to when making decisions in the future. An act or a set of actions which has been validated by the Supreme Court cannot be used as a case against the President. On similar grounds, the Nov. 3 actions were also validated by whatever Supreme Court that is functioning. Technically, the violation of Constitution cannot be used against the President as a reason for impeachment.

GROSS MISCONDUCT
This is a vague term and can be taken to mean a lot of things. The prominent allegations against Musharraf are the Lal Masjid Operation and those in tribal areas. Now, there was a government sitting at the time all such operations took place. It was a democratically elected government and the fact that its control was with the President is not a legal claim. So, these actions are attributed to the PM and not the President. Using gross misconduct as a reason for impeachment can easily go to the higher courts for interpretation.

Meanwhile, if the coalition still goes for an impeachment without a sound legal reason, the Supreme Court may use its right to interfere in the matters or an appeal filed by someone can cause the proceedings of the House to stop until the Supreme Court deems it right.

From a legal point of view, impeachment can be really tough. The legal experts of the political parties (if there are any) will definitely look into the matter with a magnifying glass because the repercussions of a failed attempt of impeachment can be devastating for the ruling coalition and will strengthen the President to an unimaginable extent.

Impeachment of Musharraf Unlikely

// August 6th, 2008 // 4 Comments » // Politics

In yet another round of talks between two non-MNA’s in an attempt to decide the fate of the country, nothing surprising at all has come to light. Although there are confirmed reports that the two larger coalition partners have agreed to impeach the President, or impeach Musharraf (the person), this is not something new. Considering that these two leaders have earlier signed a declaration promising to restore the deposed judges by an agreed date, this current decision of impeachment is not really something to be trusted.

The parties are flexing their muscles against the Musharraf but we all are aware of the support that the President enjoys from the corridors of power.

Impeaching the President is not a piece of cake. We do know that all these coalition partners have openly come out against the President earlier as well, but nothing substantial has been done against him after the elections even when Musharraf was at his weakest.

In fact, impeachment is so difficult that I don’t think these coalition partners will be able to do it anytime soon. One reason is that the very fact that the most important man currently in Pakistan, Asif Zardari, was pardoned by Musharraf (as President) as part of a deal which was culminated in the form of NRO. This deal had the backing of United States and influencial personalities in the UAE served as the guarantors. In case this deal is revoked, the first person heading to jail will be Zardari himself. To impeach Musharraf, Zardari will need the backing of these people first who helped him attain his freedom through NRO.

The case for Nawaz Sharif is different. He is adamant to get rid of Musharraf, more so to avenge the coup of 1999. There are personal issues involved at large.

We should also be aware of the fact the President holds the power of 58-2(b) to dissolve the Parliament, although the space to use this option is limited in the current situation. The President also enjoys a friendly Supreme Court and the backing of Pakistan Army and probably that of ISI (in favor of PPP).

An extremely important aspect to be considered is that if at all the coalition gets rid of Musharraf, who will be the next President? Zardari has claimed earlier that a PPP member will hold the office (and he will be from Sindh, he said). Whereas, PML-N wouldn’t like PPP to get that absolute share in power or having a situation analogous to that in Punjab where they detest Salman Taseer. Deciding the future officebearer for the President House will be much wiser to avoid another chaos, if they get to that stage.

In short, the chances of impeachment are extremely slim.