Will Muslim Leagues Unite? Will We See A New PM?

The imposition of governor rule in Punjab has prompted the factions of Muslim League to realise that this is an attempt of PPP to encroach in their territory. In fact, the PPP has already advanced in the PML zone and this act may just backfire with the unification of PML-N and PML-Q. Can this really happen? There are two important questions that need to be answered.

1. Will the Chaudhrys trust Zardari, given his recent history to break promises and his long-term animosity with them?

2. Will the Chaudhrys and Sharifs patchup?

Any one of these two WILL happen, and that will decide the future direction.

Given the fact that PML-Q has been humiliated in the elections for standing by Pervez Musharraf, there wwill be reluctance among their ranks for supporting PPP, which is widely believed to be following what is touted as Musharraf’s agenda. There have been rumours that Chaudhry Shujaat is asking for the position of Chairman Senate for himself, and the seat of CM Punjab for Moonis Elahi. Again, this may not be popular in their own party primarily because the members were earlier not happy with the leadership of Chaudhrys. And any such deal will directly affect the Chaudhry family rather than providing any benefit to the PML-Q, the party. Then comes the issue of trust. Why will PML-Q believe that PPP will not try to interfere in the politics of Punjab even if CM belongs to PML-Q. It is not a secret that Punjab is the key to rule the center and PPP will try to tighten its grip in Punjab. If a deal is struck between PPP and PML-Q agitation in Punjab will not cease.

The second, and more plausible, option is the (re)unification of PML. Or atleast, support in the assemblies. This can even lead to the overthrow of PPP’s government in center. Since Shahbaz Sharif is now disqualified to be the CM, and Nawaz disqualified to be the PM, it is clear that the future PM from PML-N will be Shahbaz Sharif (an amendment in the Constitution is unlikely in my view). Can PML (N and Q) agree on power sharing formula such that one of them gets the center while the other enjoys Punjab? Certainly possible with the increase in meetings between the members of both the parties…BUT..what about Sindh? Any such government changes will lead to agitation in Sindh! Will MQM join hands with them? They have enjoyed good relations with PML-Q but not with PML-N. Obviously they can join anyone under the banner of national interest.

The second option does look good on paper but the bigger problem is that a change in the leader of House (PM) can easily be resisted by the all-powerful President!

The situation is very complex and conflicting. PPP and PML(N and Q) have a tight hold over one province atleast. In case of any elections, I don’t see them losing grip in their stronghold. In fact, the grip will be tightened. This, sadly, means that whoever forms a government in center will have atleast one large province out of control. Punjab is important from strategic point of view in running the government, while Sindh (read Karachi) is important from economic point of view. The only way out is a harmony, trust and reconciliation. Given the history, this is next to impossible.

Pakistan Ka Khuda Hafiz

Welcome Back To 90's

It didn’t take long for Nawaz Sharif to declare an open war against PPP. This was the script of the show with the departure of Pervez Musharraf, the reason PML-N stayed in the coalition for so long. Now that Pervez Musharraf is out, they had to oppose PPP to continue their politics, mostly that of confrontation.

The ground is all set for the battle in Punjab, which is the most important province to conquer if one is to sustain a government in center. The appointment of Salman Taseer was a key indication of PPP’s foresight.

Nawaz was quiet all along and kept hanging on just to jam all ways of PPP’s alliance with Pervez Musharraf. Now that his agenda is fulfilled, it didn’t take him long to part ways with his bitter enemy.

Many bloggers predicted this the day Musharraf resigned. Ammar talked about the start of a cat-fight, which is precisely what is happening between the two parties.

The stage is set for the next showdown in Punjab. PML-Q will play the role of kingmaker, as their alliance with any of the two parties will decide the fate of the government.

Its neither the issue of judiciary nor the choice of president that have caused this coalition to break but the imprudence and incompetence of this lot of politicians has resulted in the failure of this coalition. They were never sincere with the issues of the people, all they wanted was to get rid of Musharraf and get a share of power to fill their pockets. The provincial assemblies are busy criticising Musharraf and endorsing Zardari, completely ignoring the issues of the people of Pakistan.

This has always been the real face of these political parties and those who believed in a certain change of betterment after 18th Feb were living in a fool’s paradise.

The parties are busy playing the dirty game of politics with the camouflage of democracy. This should remind us the last few words of our former President:

Pakistan Ka Khuda Hafiz

Shahbaz Sharif's Constitutional Crisis!

While the LHC has ruled in favor of Shahbaz Sharif, despite ruling against his elder brother, the challenges for the CM Punjab are far from over. He’s now caught in constitutional intricacies which will require more judgements from the higher courts. Shahbaz Sharif was elected unopposed from PP-48, after which he took the office of Chief Minister Punjab. Interestingly, he forgot to withdraw his candidature from other seats from which he was contesting. One of those seats is PP-10 from which he is declared the winner, unopposed, again.

According to the Constitution article 223:

“Subject to Clause 2 if a member of either house or of a provincial assembly becomes a candidate for a second seat which in accordance with clause 1 he may not hold concurrently with his first seat, then his first seat shall become vacant as soon as he is elected to the second seat”

If he does relinquish his seat, he gives up the seat of CM and needs to take another oath. BUT (the best part!) … According to Chief Executive Order 19 of 2002, nobody can hold the CM office for the third time unless the law is amended

Good Luck CM

More on this: DAWN

This further shows the gross negligence of the so-called lawyers of PML-N. Jaahil is the key word.

Battle For Punjab Begins

The late night breaking news on private TV channels came as a little surprise to me after the sour marriage of PPP and PML-N. Khalid Maqbool, appointed by Pervez Musharraf, was being considered as acceptable to the majority party of Punjab, PML-N. So why this change at the top level? And why Salman Taseer? And, who is Salman Taseer?

Salman Taseer is a highly educated man, a chartered accountant from England and Wales. His resume is extremely impressive and illustrious (read profile). But more important is his political affiliation. He has served as a federal minister earlier for PPP. More recently, he was inducted as the minister for industries in the caretaker setup under PM Soomro. Coming to the point, Mr. Taseer, on his political side, is affiliated with the PPP and also has favorable links with President Musharraf.

The presence of a pro-PPP and pro-Musharraf governor in Punjab is an alarming situation for PML-N. This act is basically designed to keep in check the PML-N’s government in Punjab while strengthening the control of PPP in the province. This is also an antithesis to what both the party leaders expressed in media regarding the support of each other’s government. In fact, this is yet another great political move by Asif Zardari from his newly acquired political wisdom, which at the moment seems invincible.

The way I see it, in the near future, PML-N will either quit or will be forced out (or forced to leave) the Punjab government as well. And when that happens, PPP will already be having their man in command even if they don’t get their own CM.

Punjab, historically, decides the dynamics of politics in Pakistan. With PML-N leaving the center (and not Punjab), it was imperative for PPP to keep a check on the PML-N’s government in Punjab (who at the moment seems to be overly aggressive).